Wednesday, 14 April 2010

What would a hung parliament mean for the future of the HIP industry?

Opinion polls are producing further evidence that more people would prefer a hung parliament to an outright victory for either Labour or the Conservatives. Perhaps not surprising when one considers the uproar in response to the expense scandal and the lack of clarity on how the main parties intend to address the deficit problem. For many of us a hung parliament is very much an unknown entity and for those working in the HIP industry it is unclear what a hung parliament will mean when one looks at the future of the HIP.

So what is a hung parliament? In short this is the description for the situation when after an election no political party has an overall majority in the UK House of Commons. The most recent elected hung parliament in the United Kingdom was that which followed the February 1974 general election, which lasted until the October election that year. Before that the last had been following the election of 1929. Hung parliaments can also arise when slim government majorities are eroded by by-election defeats and defection of Members of Parliament to opposition parties. This happened in 1996 to the Conservative government of John Major (1990–97) and in 1978 to the Labour government of James Callaghan (1976–79).

What does this mean for the HIP industry? ‘Not sure’ is perhaps the best response as it all depends on what would happen if as is likely the Conservative Party fails to secure a sufficient swing in the vote to secure a ‘working’ majority. It is most unlikely in my opinion given the diverse political ideologies that exist. for there to be a coalition between the Conservatives and the LibDems. It is more likely to involve Labour and if this were to happen given the neutral stance (despite the surprising manefesto pledge to 'scrap') adopted by the LibDems on HIPs, it would probably mean the HIP would be safe. Even in the unlikely event of a Conservative/LibDems pact I do not see the HIP ranking high enough in the list of issues to be an immediate target for action.

So in conclusion a hung parliament would not present a bad result for the HIP industry and on the contrary it may be what is needed to ensure those who have hitherto refused point blank to listen to reason and begin engaging in constructive discussion on how best to reform our out-dated home buying process.

As for the Country as a whole, looking at the last hung parliament that of Jim Callaghan, from 1976 to 1979, a period of very difficult global circumstances – high oil prices and domestic economic chaos – it wasn't in general terms a bad government.

1 comment:

  1. Have I missed something. If the conservatives abolish HIPs a situation will be created where vendors will have paid for a HIP in order to market their property up to the date of HIP abolision. When they purchase a property subsequently, that property may not have a(voluntary) HIP and they could, in effect, have to pay twice. Seems grossly unfair to me. Bring on a hung parliament!

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